Freddie Mac - mortgage rate hits new record low

The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage hit its lowest point in more than 50 years. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage at 4.19% with an average 0.8 origination point for the week ending Oct. 14, down from last week's average of 4.27%. A year ago the average was 4.92%. This is the lowest rate the survey has recorded since its inception in 1971. Mortgage rates were last at this level in April 1951, according to Freddie Mac. The Bankrate survey of large banks and thrifts reported the average rate for a 30-year, fixed mortgage is 4.47% with a 0.32 origination point, slightly above the 25-year-old survey's record low of 4.45% posted last month. Rates for 15-year FRMs are falling steeply, setting a new low for Freddie Mac.

The GSE said the rate was down to 3.62% with an average origination point of 0.8. The rate for a 15-year FRM was 4.37% a year earlier. Bankrate said the average rate for 15-year, FRMs of 3.85% is a new record low and down from 3.87% a week earlier. Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist at Freddie Mac, attributed the declining rates to the loss of 95,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September. The GSE said the average for a 5-year, adjustable-rate mortgage is 3.47% with an average 0.6 origination point, down from 4.38% a year ago. The average remained flat with last week. Bankrate reported the average rate for a 5-year, ARM fell last week to 3.62% from 3.64% previously. The one-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 3.43% with an average 0.7 point up slightly from 3.4%. At this time last year, the one-year ARM averaged 4.6%.

WSJ - Foreclosure disaster hits banks!

The mortgage-foreclosure crisis spilled into the financial markets on Thursday, driving down bank stocks and weighing on mortgage bonds as investors took a grim view of the potential costs. Shares of U.S. banks fell, while the broader stock market was essentially flat. Bank of America Corp., potentially among the most affected, dropped more than 5%. Bank bonds also fell, and the cost of buying protection against a possible debt default by banks climbed. "The level of uncertainty in the economy is at extraordinarily high levels to begin with," said Jack Scott, chief investment officer at BlackHawk Capital Management, a Charlotte, N.C., money manager that owns mortgage securities. "The foreclosure problem adds another layer of acute uncertainty."

So far, the foreclosure crisis hasn't affected consumer mortgage rates, which remain near record lows. They are closely linked to rates on U.S. Treasurys, which have tumbled in recent months. Until recently, investors hadn't fled financial stocks. If the issues raised about foreclosure practices in recent days are easily resolved technical glitches, with most foreclosures resuming after brief delays, then the impact on most investors would be small. "The [mortgage] market seems to be functioning relatively well, but that could change depending on how we see this play out," said BlackRock Inc. portfolio manager John Vibert. But some fear that it may be difficult to do any foreclosures for a while.

The risk is that foreclosure flaws are so widespread, or the political furor so heated, that the entire process grinds to a halt, as Citigroup analyst Joshua Levin said in a conference call this week. In some cases, that would choke off much of the cash flow used to pay mortgage bondholders. Another concern is that banks could be forced to modify billions of dollars in loans, including reducing principal, which could leave bondholders as big losers. Banks, meanwhile, could be hit with investor lawsuits, and foreclosure delays could bring short-term losses. Some investors are pushing for banks to take back nonperforming mortgages in cases of faulty documentation.

Take Control of Your Credit Score

Parents aren't so bright when it comes to what behaviors will impact their credit scores and that could brush off on their kids.

In March, ING Direct bank commissioned Harris Interactive to conduct an online survey of 1,042 parents of children age 17 years and younger.

• The survey discovered more than half, 56 percent, of those surveyed thought bouncing a check or paying a fee for having non-sufficient funds in their bank account would reduce their credit scores.

Wrong.

Credit reports typically don't include information about checking and debit accounts, nor non-sufficient fund issues unless they somehow impact an attached credit account.

• Also one in five (21 percent) thought checking their credit scores would hurt credit scores. Nearly as many (18 percent) thought accessing their credit report, would hurt their credit scores.

Wrong and wrong.

Obtaining your credit report and credit score has no bearing on your credit standing.

In fact, you should check your credit reports regularly. Every year, federal regulations allow you three free credit reports (ONLY through AnnualCreditReport.com), one each from the three credit reporting agencies, Equifax, Experian and TransUnion.

If you visit some other sound-alike, come-on web site, instead of AnnualCreditReport.com, expect to pay for credit services you may not need in exchange for that so-called "free" report.

From AnnualCreditReport.com, get the three free reports all at once if you haven't seen them for years. Otherwise get one from a different company every four months to regularly monitor your credit report for errors, identity theft, black marks you may need to work on and other issues.

For your credit score it will cost you a nominal fee (it's worth it) paid to each of the three credit reporting agencies.

A credit score -- virtually always examined by lenders when you apply for a mortgage, credit card, car loan, other credit, even homeowners insurance and other financial accounts -- is a numerical rendition of your creditworthiness.

Scores range from about 300 to about 850. The higher the number the more likely you are to get credit and the more likely you are to get cheap credit. Your score should be at 760 or above to land the best interest rate, according to FICO, a leading credit scoring system provider.

Debunking the myths

To help debunk credit score myths, misunderstandings, misdirection and to stop financial behaviors that could be passed onto future generations, ING Direct and Experian developed five tips to help parents separate fact from fiction.

• Practice what you preach. Simple financial behaviors such as paying your bills on time will keep your credit in good standing and will allow you to obtain better interest rates on big asset purchases like a house or car. Lead by example.

• Start early. When you kids start to ask you to buy things for them, it's time for the "money talk." Later, introduce more complex credit topics with stern statements like "credit is not free money." Talk about interest rates, paying on time, paying off balances and saving money.

Make learning fun with interactive web sites like Planet Orange; $avingsman's Choose To Save; Smart About Money; Credit When Credit Is Due; Fool Proof Me and MyMoney

• Make credit a family affair. Let children in on household financial discussions that reveal the true cost of necessities. Sit them at the table during budget and bill paying sessions. Explain the fallout from making poor financial decisions.

• Set family financial goals. Teach children how money doesn't grow on trees. Show them how to save for things they desire rather than accessing credit to spend money they do not have. It's a way to encourage your children to set financial goals and work towards achieving them. Children savor things more when they put in the time and effort to purchase items with their hard earned cash.

• Explain the difference. Talk to children about the differences between needs versus wants, especially at times when they want you to give into impulse buying. During grocery store visits, show kids the difference in prices between name brands and generic brands as a way to expand on this lesson.

JOIN US Next Tuesday!

PLEASE JOIN US!!
REX Club is holding our next meeting on July 20,2010
Where: Petroleum Club. 3301 C Street Ste. 102
Time: 5:45 pm to 8:00 pm
Please RSVP Kecross@gci.net or Adam@firstrateak.com

The Housing Market Gets a Vote of Confidence

The Housing Market Gets a Vote of Confidence....from Mortgage Insurers

After months of Federal tax credits and over a trillion dollars of mortgage-backed securities purchases by the Fed, encouraging signs of increased liquidity from entities outside of the Federal government are starting to become more readily available via the mortgage insurance market.

Over the past two years, delinquencies, which in many cases lead to eventual foreclosure, had plagued so many of these private insurers that they were forced to shut their doors. Now, a resurgence of capital is being infused into many of the survivors, leading many in the market to believe that there is a renewed sense of confidence in the mortgage market, particularly with regards to residential mortgages originated in excess of the 80% LTV threshold that these insurers support. Over $2 billion of investor dollars have been injected into various mortgage insurers, many of them start-up firms, and now they stand ready to underwrite and insure.

Case in point, MGIC, one of the last giants standing from the market collapse, raised over $1 billion in fresh capital in the last 60 days; a combination of stock and debt. The PMI Group raised over $700 million dollars in new funding as well; also a combination of debt and equity. Mortgage Assurance Corp, a start-up from Wisconsin, just got its licensing from its state regulator. In addition, Radian Corp, another start-up mortgage insurer, raised $500 million for its operations from a variety of investors which included a private equity firm (Pine Brook Partners), JP Morgan Chase, and investment banking powerhouse Goldman Sachs. As of today they are very close to being licensed in all of the 50 states. Moreover, the stocks for both MGIC and PMI Group are up over the last two months, which in itself is another vote of confidence in the mortgage market. Given that the FHA is now raising its MI premiums and tightening its underwriting criteria (due its record losses and current liquidity issues), a resurrection in the involvement of private mortgage insurers is just what our industry needs to continue our recovery.

The private mortgage insurance market looks to be making a comeback. Given that the FHA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac are all hemorrhaging and incurring massive losses, it can't come at a moment too soon; particularly since the Fed is no longer purchasing mortgage-backed securities to artificially keep rates low. As the private market continues to inject fresh capital into the various entities that facilitate the life blood of the mortgage industry, the financing marketplace should continue its steady pace to a full recovery. The outside investor confidence in the mortgage industry will do wonders to lift up our industry as the Federal government pulls back and winds down its programs. One can only hope that all of this fresh capital doesn't lead to another round of over aggressive lending........remember 100% no-doc?

REX CLUB Holding Our Next Meeting

DON'T FORGET! June 29th at the Petroleum Club we are holding our next REX Club meeting! We have a special speaker who is going to talk to you about property management and collecting rents. For more information contact Kevin Cross 865-6529 or Adam Heafner 222-5505

Whether a Landlord or Tenant, you have rights- know them!

http://www.commerce.state.ak.us/occ/pub/landlord.pdf

TONIGHT! REX CLUB

Where: Petroleum Club. 3301 C Street Ste 102. Anchorage, AK 99503

Time: 5:45 pm to 8:00 pm

We are excited to have CPA Mark Schneiter as our speaker this month. Mark is owner of Schneiter & Moad and will be letting you know why it is vital to have a good accountant on your side in any investment decision. For more information visit www.schneiterandmoad.com

REMINDER:

REX Club is holding our next meeting on May 18, 2010.
Where: Petroleum Club. 3301 C Street Ste 102. Anchorage, AK 99503
Time: 5:45 pm to 8:00 pm

We are excited to have Mark Schneiter as our speaker this month. Mark E. Schneiter is the president of the firm of Schneiter & Moad, CPAs, PC as well as principal in the firm of Schneiter & Stiehm Planning & Investments, LLC. He is a certified public accountant with over thirty years experience, twenty five years while operating his own firm. Mr. Schneiter has served as Chairman of the Professional Education and Taxation Committees for the Alaska Society of CPAs. He has lectured on tax related topics for the CPA Society as well as other accounting organizations. He has served as an adjunct professor of tax and accounting for the University of Alaska and was Alaska’s representative at liaison meetings between CPAs and the Internal Revenue Service at the local, regional and national level. He has earned the Distinguished Service Award from the Alaska Society of Certified Public Accountants.

Mark received a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in accounting from Portland State University, Portland. Oregon. He is a member of the American Institute of CPAs and is a past president of Alaska Society of CPAs. Mark and Judie, his wife of 30 years, have been residents of Alaska since 1982.

REMINDER:

REX Club is holding our next meeting on May 18, 2010.
Where: Petroleum Club. 3301 C Street Ste 102. Anchorage, AK 99503
Time: 5:45 pm to 8:00 pm


We are excited to have CPA Mark Schneiter as our speaker this month. Mark is owner of Schneiter & Moad and will be letting you know why it is vital to have a good accountant on your side in any investment decision. For more information visit www.schneiterandmoad.com

Don’t forget friends get dinner on us!

For additional information contact Kevin Cross at 865-6529 or
Adam Heafner at 222-5505

Buyers Rush to Meet Tax-Credit Deadline

As the federal tax credits come to an end, home buyers everywhere are hurrying to get in under the wire.

But in California the rush has turned into something of a stampede as some would-be buyers try to qualify for both the federal credit and a $10,000 state credit that kicks in Saturday.

As one home shopper tells the Los Angeles Times, "I am looking at properties almost constantly, and it is just kind of a feeding frenzy right now.”

"The stimulus has worked," says Rick Hoffman, president of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in San Diego and Temecula Valley. "Buyers are confident that we have seen the bottom of the real estate market and that we are on the way back up."

Source: Los Angeles Times, Alejandro Lazo (04/30/2010)

Market Conditions Improving

Existing-Home Sales Rise on Home Buyer Tax Credit and Favorable Market Conditions

Washington, April 22, 2010 Courtesy of National Association of REALTORS

Buyers responding to the homebuyer tax credit and favorable affordability conditions boosted existing-home sales in March, marking the beginning of an expected spring surge, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales¹, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million units in March from 5.01 million in February, and are 16.1 percent above the 4.61 million-unit level in March 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said it is encouraging to see a broad home sales recovery in nearly every part of the country, with two important underlying trends. “Sales have been above year-ago levels for nine straight months, and inventory has trended down from year-ago levels for 20 months running,” he said. “The home buyer tax credit has been a resounding success as these underlying trends point to a broad stabilization in home prices. This is preserving perhaps $1 trillion in largely middle class housing wealth that may have been wiped out without the housing stimulus measure.”

Total housing inventory at the end of March rose 1.5 percent to 3.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.0-month supply² at the current sales pace, down from an 8.5-month supply in February. Raw unsold inventory is 1.8 percent below a year ago, and is 21.7 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

“Foreclosures have been feeding into the inventory pipeline at a fairly steady pace and are being absorbed manageably,” Yun said. “In fact, foreclosures are selling quickly, especially in the lower price ranges that are attractive to first-time home buyers.”

A parallel NAR practitioner survey³ shows first-time buyers purchased 44 percent of homes in March, up from 42 percent in February. Investors accounted for 19 percent of transactions in March, unchanged from February; the remaining sales were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales remain elevated at 27 percent in March, the same as in February.

The national median existing-home price⁴ for all housing types was $170,700 in March, up 0.4 percent from March 2009. Distressed homes, typically sold at a 15 percent discount, accounted for 35 percent of sales last month – unchanged from February.

“With home values stabilizing, a revival in home buying confidence will likely help the housing market get back on its feet even as the tax credit impact disappears,” Yun said.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said buying conditions are in near-perfect alignment. “Even with tougher loan standards, historically low mortgage interest rates with affordable prices and a sense that the market is turning have created optimal conditions in much of the country,” she said.

“With the fast approaching April 30 deadline to get a contract in place for the tax credit, Realtors® are working harder than ever to negotiate transactions, arrange services and complete paperwork,” Golder said. “Because many repeat buyers need to sell their current home first, many will be purchasing later without the tax credit but now have the benefit of a more buoyant housing market.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage dipped to 4.97 percent in March from 4.99 percent in February; the rate was 5.00 percent in March 2009.

Single-family home sales rose 7.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million in March from a level of 4.36 million in February, and are 13.3 percent above the 4.13 million level a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $170,700 in March, up 0.6 percent from March 2009.

Single-family median prices rose in 14 out of 20 metropolitan statistical areas reported in March in comparison with a year earlier. Five metro areas experienced double-digit increases, including San Diego, St. Louis and Boston.

Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000 in March from 650,000 in February, and are 39.3 percent higher than the 481,000-unit level in March 2009. The median existing condo price⁵ was $170,600 in March, which is 0.7 percent below a year ago.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 6.0 percent to an annual level of 890,000 in March and are 25.4 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $249,800, up 8.9 percent from March 2009.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 7.2 percent in March to a pace of 1.19 million and are 15.5 percent above March 2009. The median price in the Midwest was $139,300, up 0.2 percent from a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 7.1 percent to an annual level of 1.97 million in March and are 13.9 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $154,800, up 5.2 percent from March 2009.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 6.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.30 million in March and are 14.0 percent above March 2009. The median price in the West was $209,400, down 7.9 percent from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

NOTE: NAR also reports monthly comparisons of existing single-family home sales and median prices for 20 select metropolitan statistical areas, which is posted with other tables at: www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata. For information on areas not included in the report, please contact the local association of Realtors®.

¹Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 to 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – more than 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

²Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, condos were measured quarterly while single-family sales accounted for more than 90 percent of transactions).

³First-time buyer and distressed sales data are from the Realtor® Confidence Index.

⁴The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.

⁵Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price generally is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.

Existing-home sales for April will be released May 24, 2010. The next Pending Home Sales Index is scheduled for May 4; release times are 10 a.m. EDT.

Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the News Media section. Statistical data in this release, other tables and surveys also may be found by clicking on Research.

Obama's mortgage relief: 10% effective

According to a Congressional Oversight Panel's latest report released today, only 168,708 homeowners have received long-term mortgage modifications as of February - a small fraction of the 6 million borrowers who are more than 60 days behind on their loans. One in ten, in fact. The president's foreclosure-prevention plan will likely assist only 1 million troubled borrowers, short of the administration's original goal of up to 4 million homeowners. The program is funded with $50 billion in Troubled Assets Relief, or TARP, funds, putting it under the panel's purview. "For every borrower who avoided foreclosure through HAMP last year, another 10 families lost their homes," the panel said of the administration's Home Affordable Modification Program. "It now seems clear that Treasury's programs, even when they are fully operational, will not reach the overwhelming majority of homeowners in trouble."

The panel's report is the latest to slam the president's foreclosure-prevention efforts. Last month two other government watchdogs released blistering reports that slammed the administration for poor implementation of the program and raised doubts that 4 million troubled borrowers could stay in their homes. The panel lays out several concerns, including the long-term sustainability of the modified mortgages and the ultimate cost and goals of the program. The panel is also concerned that the half-dozen foreclosure-prevention programs launched by Treasury over the past year has resulted in confusion and delays.

Mortgage delinquencies continue to climb

According to credit reporting agency TransUnion, 6.89% of mortgage payments were 60 or more days past due in Q409 - up from 4.58% in the final three months of 2008. The previous record delinquency rate was 6.25% in the third quarter of 2009. FJ Guarrera, vice president of TransUnion's financial services business unit, says the fourth-quarter uptick was due in part to normal seasonal spending shifts. Consumers are more likely to have trouble paying bills during the last few months of the year as they run low on cash because of holiday spending. But he says that even accounting for normal season patterns, there is some reason to be concerned about the pace of increase moving higher. "To see continuing growth in the first quarter would certainly raise an eyebrow."

TransUnion tracks mortgages that are two months past due as an indicator of potential foreclosure, because of the difficulty involved in coming up with three payments to bring an account current. The agency said the delinquency rate stayed highest in Nevada, at 16.2%, and Florida, at 14.9%. Arizona and California, the other two states hit hardest by the housing crisis, were third and fourth, at 11.3% and 11% respectively. The highest growth rates compared with the third quarter were in the District of Columbia, Louisiana and Delaware. Guarrera noted that many homeowners still have adjustable rate mortgages written in late 2006 or early 2007 due to reset to higher rates in coming months, and that could drive foreclosures even higher, especially in areas where home prices have fallen to the point where values are lower than mortgages. "We're not out of the woods yet," he said.

New Home Sales Drop

On the heels of the S&P/Case-Shiller report yesterday, the Commerce Department said sales fell 7.6 percent to a 342,000 unit annual rate from an upwardly revised 370,000 units in November. It was the second straight month that new home sales declined. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected new home sales to increase to a 370,000 unit annual pace from November's previously reported 355,000 units. New home sales for the whole of 2009 fell 22.9 percent to a record low 374,000 units, but despite the slump in sales there were a few bright spots in today's report. The median sale price for a new home rose 5.2 percent last month from November to $221,300, the highest in seven months and the biggest rise since April 2009. Compared to December 2008, the median sale price fell 3.6 percent. The number of new homes on the market last month dropped 1.7 percent to 231,000 units, the lowest level since April 1971. However, December's weak sales pace left the supply of homes available for sale at 8.1 months' worth, the highest since June 2009, from 7.6 months in November.

Long-Term Rates at 6% by Year-End

According to the latest Housing & Mortgage Market Review published by the PMI Group, Inc., mortgage interest rates for 30-year fixed loans are projected to hit 6.00% by the end of 2010. Long-term interest rates have generally headed higher since the end of November, probably in response to signs of economic recovery, PMI noted. The California-based company expects this trend to continue, with a notable increase coming in Q2, influenced largely by the Federal Reserve’s withdrawal from the secondary mortgage market. Another government housing stimulus program – the federal home buyer tax credit – is also expected to leave a significant mark on housing conditions.

The first-time home buyer tax credit pulled sales forward into the months before it expired in November, PMI explained. Even with the extension and expansion of the credit, the company’s report says it’s likely that there will be a payback period from the original tax credit. Looking ahead, PMI says sales should climb more strongly in 2010, once the payback period from 2009’s tax credit comes full circle. As the job market finally starts to improve and credit markets function better, existing sales should climb by 7.7% and new home sales by 35.5%, PMI said in its report. The continued oversupply of homes on the market still weighs on house prices, although the pickup in sales has tempered this, the company said. Following a projected decline in existing home prices of 12.7% for 2009, PMI says prices should fall by another 5.0% this spring. However, stronger sales and reduced inventory should allow prices to remain relatively flat over the course of 2010, the company concluded.

More foreclosures coming

The number of long-term adjustments completed under the president's foreclosure prevention plan rose to 66,465 at the end of December, or 7.4% of all trial modifications started, up from 31,382 a month earlier. Another 46,056 modifications are pending borrowers' final signatures, according to Treasury statistics released Friday. Another 48,924 were denied permanent modifications, mainly because they did not make their trial payments on time, did not hand in the needed paperwork or did not meet the program's criteria. Meanwhile, the number of delinquent homeowners in trial modifications rose to 787,231, up from 697,026 a month earlier.

Housing experts remain concerned that the rate of foreclosures still outpaces the help homeowners are receiving under the program. A record three million homeowners received at least one foreclosure filing in 2009, according to a RealtyTrac report released last Thursday. A lot of borrowers are too far underwater or don't have enough income to qualify for a permanent modification, said Celia Chen, senior director at Economy.com. Others will not be able to provide all the documentation needed. Administration officials said they continue to review the program to make sure it is helping those in need, Chen said she doesn't think there's anything the government can do to keep these borrowers in their homes. "As more of these loans fail to make it to permanent modifications, a lot will go back on the market as foreclosures and that will depress home prices," said Chen, who expects home prices to fall another 10% by the third quarter of this year.

President and Democrats trying to whip up populism in Massachusetts

The Democrats and the White House are scrambling to salvage the special U.S. Senate election in Massachusetts by trying to whip up a populist furor over banks. Amid reports that financial institutions bailed out by the government are enjoying healthy profits and paying generous bonuses, and as a bipartisan commission began hearing testimony on banks' role in the economic crisis, Senate candidate Martha Coakley (D), Vice President Joe Biden and others used the issue to portray Ms. Coakley, who is vying to succeed the late Edward Kennedy, as tough on bank executives and Republican Scott Brown (R) as coddling them. This sort of anti-bank populism was popular in the 1930s by demagogues like Father Coughlin, but rarely has a president engaged in this sort of bare knuckle politics to save his agenda. Polls show declining voter enthusiasm for Mr. Obama's health-care plan, and Brown has campaigned on a promise to provide the 41st GOP vote to secure a Senate filibuster to scuttle a health-care bill.

Democratic strategists concede Mr. Obama's support in the past for a Wall Street bailout has fueled voter anger, particularly among conservatives and supporters of the anti-establishment Tea Party movement who are pouring money and volunteer hours into Mr. Brown's race. With the bank tax, "we can take populism back to our side," a Democratic Party strategist said. Mr. Brown he opposed the tax because it would most likely be passed on to consumers through ATM fees, among other things. He said banks would have to pay a hefty tax rather than use the money to extend much-needed loans to small businesses. "If you're having an uphill battle selling health care in a blue state like Massachusetts, that should send shivers down the spine of Democrats looking at races across the country," said Brian Walsh, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. A new Suffolk University poll finds Republican Scott Brown leading Democrat Martha Coakley, 50% to 46%. If Brown wins , ObamaCare dies. He would be the 41st vote to prevent any compromise legislation from coming to the floor of the Senate.

Chris McLaughlin; Loss Mitigation Institute

What caused the housing bubble?

In a monthly survey of business economists by the Wall Street Journal, 42 said low interest rates were partly to blame for the housing boom while 12 sided with Mr. Bernanke, who said they weren't. Academic economists who specialize in monetary policy were split in a separate survey: 13 said low interest rates helped cause the housing bubble; 14 said they didn't. Mr. Bernanke laid out his defense of Fed policy in a speech to the American Economic Association last week, acknowledging that interest rates were very low but adding that policy "does not appear to have been inappropriate." Other factors -- notably an explosion of exotic mortgages and a flood of cash coming into the U.S. from abroad -- were the crucial drivers of the housing bubble, he said. "Regulatory and supervisory policies, rather than monetary policies, would have been more effective means of addressing the run-up in house prices," he said. The "basic problem" was "the mistake" of raising short-term interest rates too slowly from 2004 through 2006, said Miles Kimball of the University of Michigan. "Going up quicker would have been better."

"The appreciation of house prices was but one of many indicators which called for a somewhat more restrictive interest-rate policy" in 2004 and 2005, said Marvin Goodfriend of Carnegie Mellon's Tepper School of Business. Many economists met Mr. Bernanke halfway -- arguing that low rates played a role in fueling the housing boom, though they may not have been the key force. Some noted that low rates encouraged banks to write the riskier loans that Mr. Bernanke puts at the center of the crisis. "There is plenty of blame to go all around," said Martin Eichenbaum of Northwestern University, expressing a commonly expressed view. "Loose monetary policy certainly contributed to easy financing, which was one element of the bubble."

Chris McLaughlin

Option ARMs feeding foreclosures

There are no specific numbers on how many option ARM loans there are. But analysts estimate that as many as 1.3 million borrowers took out $389 billion in option ARMs in 2004 and 2005 alone. Many of those option ARM loans have already re-adjusted to higher payments, but more are on the way. Some 88 percent of Option ARMs originated between 2004 and 2007 are going to adjust higher between now and 2012. Those option ARM borrowers could see their housing bills go up as much as 63 percent, according to Fitch ratings. "It's going to kill off housing," warns Patrick Pulatie, CEO of Loan Fraud Investigations, a predatory lending audit firm. "We have pretty close to 500,000 option ARM payments going higher in California over the next couple of years. The impact of the higher payments will be devastating for homeowners who are having trouble now making ends meet."

As the terms of those mortgages now readjust, homeowners are facing much higher mortgage payments at a time when the value of their house has plummeted and many are out of work. In some cases, homeowners who chose a very low starting interest rate have actually seen the overall amount of their mortgage increase—known as negative amoritization—putting them even deeper in debt. "Option ARMs have been a disaster from day one and a lot of them have already defaulted," says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst with Bankrate.com. "This is a very big issue because interest rates are rising."

And there's more misery. If the Fed increases rates in the months ahead to fight inflation, rates tied to option ARM indexes will rise further—causing more payments to adjust up even sooner. And while Option ARM borrowers might want to re-finance, they often can't because of falling home values and tighter credit restrictions. "I don’t see how the option ARM problem is not a huge issue," says Sylvia Alayon, vice president and director of operations for the Consumer Mortgage Audit Center, which provides auditing services to advocacy groups. "This is a major hit for housing. It will continue to feed the excess supply of housing with more foreclosures."

Chris McLaughlin

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